Free case: how one afternoon of math caught Charles Ponzi
Boston, 1920. Ponzi promised 50% profit in 45 days, from buying international postal reply coupons cheap abroad and cashing them in the US. Lines went around the block. Here's the move that ended it, straight from Chapter 01.
What Ponzi's story neededCoupons to cover the money he'd taken inAbout 160 millionSo the profit could be real
What existedCoupons circulating in the whole United StatesAbout 27,000Roughly 5,900 needed for every real one
The SlipHe promised a return so high that one afternoon of arithmetic broke it. Ponzi never needed to be exposed by an insider. He needed someone to count the coupons.
Try it yourself: 50% every 45 days is about eight rounds a year. $100 becomes $150, then $225, then $338, and after eight rounds about $2,563. If a promised return makes the yearly number absurd, you've just done the financial writer Clarence Barron's job.
That's one case. The other eleven slips are in the book, and they come in only three kinds.
Slip 1The mathThe promise couldn't be true, and someone multiplied it out.Ponzi, Madoff, Stanford, FTX
Slip 2The booksSomeone whose job was the paperwork read the right page.Capone, WorldCom, Crundwell, Wirecard
Slip 3The trailA tiny detail had a real name on it.Silk Road, Bangladesh Bank, Theranos, Bitfinex